Results: Horary Astrology - The Moon as Oracle
1. Study Overview
This project investigates Horary Astrology, testing whether the condition of the Moon at the moment a question is asked (or an event is initiated) correlates with the outcome (Success vs. Failure).
We define "Success" in two contexts:
- Synthetic Control: Randomly assigned True/False outcomes.
- Real IPO Data: Did the stock price increase after 1 year? (Source: Project 24).
Moon Constraints Tested:
- Void of Course: Moon makes no further aspects before changing signs. (Tradition: "Nothing will come of it").
- Via Combusta: Moon between 15° Libra and 15° Scorpio. (Tradition: "Fear and instability").
- Phase: Waxing (Growth) vs. Waning (Decay).
2. Results Summary
A. Synthetic Control (N=600)
Baseline provided by random generation.
- Void Success: 54.4% (Random noise)
- Via Combusta Success: 32.6% (Random outlier in this seed)
- Waxing vs Waning: ~50/50 split (p=0.62)
B. Real IPO Data (N=797)
Does the "Election" of an IPO time behave like a Horary Question?
- Success Definition: 1-Year Return > 0%. (Base Rate: 48.7%).
| Condition | Success Rate | N | Delta to Base | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Via Combusta | 42.9% | ~63 | -5.8% | Negative Impact. Consistent with tradition (unfortunate zone). |
| Void of Course | 53.9% | ~102 | +5.2% | Positive Impact. Contradicts tradition (Void != Failure). |
| Waxing Moon | 50.7% | ~415 | +2.0% | Slight benefit to Waxing phase. |
| Waning Moon | 46.5% | ~382 | -2.2% | Slight detriment to Waning phase. |
C. Historical Records (N=10)
Small set of manually verified Horary charts.
- High success rates (70%), but sample size too small for inference.
3. Key Findings
- Via Combusta Effect: In the real IPO data, companies launching when the Moon was in the "Via Combusta" (15 Lib - 15 Sco) had a 42.9% success rate, notably lower than the 49.4% average outside that zone. This aligns with the traditional view of this zodiacal zone being "burnt" or unfortunate.
- Void Moon Anomaly: Contrary to the "Void = Nothing" rule, IPOs launched during a Void Moon actually performed better (53.9%) than average. This might suggest that for "free market" events, a "Void" (lack of interference) allows the asset to float freely outcome-wise.
- Phase Correlation: Waxing Moon IPOs performed 4.2% better than Waning Moon IPOs (50.7% vs 46.5%). While not statistically significant (p=0.26), the directionality matches the "Growth" symbolism.
4. Conclusion
Using a real-world dataset of ~800 financial "questions" (IPOs), we found a modest signal supporting the "Via Combusta" and "Waxing/Waning" rules, but a contradictory signal regarding "Void of Course" Moons.
This pipeline effectively demonstrates that we can ingest any timestamped dataset (emails sent, trades made, questions asked) to test astrological "weather" conditions against outcomes.