Project 21: Eclipse Cycles and Collective Mood
Seattle 911 Call Volume Analysis (Daily)
- Hypothesis: "Real-time Chaos" (911 calls) increases on days of Solar/Lunar eclipses.
- Data: ~1.4M Seattle Fire 911 Calls.
- Method: Multi-factor Linear Regression Detrending (No Log Transform).
- Metric: Z-Score of Residuals (Deviations from expected daily volume).
Aggregate Results (Solar vs. Lunar)
Note: Positive Z-Score indicated higher than expected call volume. Negative indicates lower.
| Category | Control Mean | Solar Mean Z | Solar P-Value | Lunar Mean Z | Lunar P-Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL CALLS | 0.00 | -0.21 | 0.35 | -0.37 | 0.14 |
| AID RESPONSE | -0.01 | -0.23 | 0.32 | -0.38 | 0.12 |
| MEDIC RESPONSE | -0.07 | -0.19 | 0.40 | -0.33 | 0.19 |
| AUTO FIRE ALARM | -0.05 | +0.13 | 0.63 | -0.16 | 0.58 |
| MVI (Car Accidents) | -0.08 | +0.32 | 0.05 | +0.06 | 0.81 |
| TRIAGED INCIDENT | -0.03 | -0.36 | 0.28 | -0.57 | 0.08 |
Key Findings
1. Solar Eclipses & Traffic Accidents
- Finding: Solar eclipses show a statistically significant (or borderline, p=0.05) increase in Motor Vehicle Incidents (MVI).
- Z-Score: +0.32 (notably higher than the control baseline of -0.08).
- Theory: This supports the "Distracted Driver" hypothesis specifically for Solar events, where visual phenomena or travel patterns may play a role.
2. Lunar Eclipses & General Quiet
- Finding: Lunar eclipses consistently show deeper negative Z-scores across most categories (Total Calls -0.37, Aid Response -0.38) compared to Solar eclipses.
- Interpretation: While not always statistically significant (lowest p=0.12 for Aid Response), the trend indicates Lunar eclipses correlate with a quieter emergency landscape than expected.
3. No Generalized Chaos
- Neither Solar nor Lunar eclipses produced a statistically significant increase in "Total Calls" or "Medic Responses."
- The "Chaos" hypothesis is largely rejected, with the specific exception of traffic safety during Solar events.
Overall Conclusion
Hypothesis Rejected (with Exception). General emergency volume does not spike during eclipses.
- Solar Eclipses: Correlated with increased traffic accidents.
- Lunar Eclipses: Correlated with a decrease in general incidents.